The Scottish Grand National winner has come from near the top of the betting market the last three years but there has been 66/1 & 33/1 winners in 2008 & 2006 respectively. A very good trial for this race has been horses that have run well in the 4 mile chase at the Cheltenham Festival but we have one runner from that race this year in Adrenalin Flight. He ran a respectable race at the Festival when fourth but I’m not convinced he’s good enough to win today.
However, Green Flag, Roberto Goldback, Trustan Times and Sam Winner ran very good races at the festival too and have their chances today. Of that four I like Sam Winner who is a big chasing type that can improve for the step up in trip. He loves good ground and this race represents a drop in class having contested the Grade 1 RSA chase last time out. He is a super jumper and can run very well tomorrow.
Back to my fancy at a big price which is Mister Marker. He finished third in this race last season albeit by 13 lengths. That was on good ground which rode fast and he was outpaced by the winner Godsmejudge. This year the word soft looks like staying in the going description and that will help Mister Marker a lot.
Tidal Bay running does mean he is 5lb wrong at the weights but that doesn’t make a huge difference in these staying races as proved by Mountainous winning the Welsh National from out of the weights. Trainer Nicky Richards has Mister Marker back in good form having finished 2nd last time out over an inadequate trip of 2m4f at this track following a win at Kelso before that. Brian Harding is back on board and this race has been the plan all season no doubt.
Selection: 1 Point *EW Mister Marker Ayr 15:50 at 28/1 Sportingbet offering 5 places
Selection: 1 Point *EW Sam Winner Ayr 15:50 at 12/1 Betvictor 5 places
Best of luck,
Nicky
